The research institute, part of one of the largest banks in the world, Credit Suisse, released an analytical report last week, eloquently entitled “Fat: The New Paradigm of Health”. The report examines the impact of medical advice on global fat consumption, changing consumer attitudes towards fat, and how this could impact food investment.
For many years, mainstream medicine recommended drastic reductions in saturated fat and cholesterol intake, while polyunsaturated fatty acids and carbohydrates could be consumed in any amount. But modern medical research and new scientific data are leading to a gradual shift in consumer preferences towards foods that contain natural, unprocessed saturated and monounsaturated fats. These are, first of all, organic dairy products and eggs, grass-fed meats, olive and other natural oils, nuts. The report shows this evolution by analyzing over 400 scientific papers and books published by scientists and food industry professionals. In addition, the report contains the results of two own surveys of doctors, nutritionists and consumers.
“We found that 40% of dietitians and 70% of therapists believe cholesterol-rich foods have harmful cardiovascular effects. According to detailed studies that have been carried out recently, this is not true. In addition, they have limited knowledge of the risks and positive effects of increasing fat intake. There is a worrying gap between the facts about fats and what is being told to consumers, ”said Gilles Keating, deputy head of the bank's investment division.
Despite this, the analysis shows that consumer habits are changing, and this should be of great interest to potential investors: the world consumption of butter is growing by 2-4% annually; in the United States over the past six months, sales of whole milk have grown by 11%, while skim milk has fallen by 14%, and sales of organic eggs have grown by 21% over the past 12 months. The report shows that the trend will continue over the next 15 years and by 2030 fat will account for 31% of total energy consumption (currently 26%). The share of saturated fat in global calories will rise to 13% by 2030, up from the current 9%.
“We believe this is a turning point for consumers and this will have significant implications for investors. The report's conclusion is simple: natural unprocessed fats are healthy and integral to transforming our society towards a focus on developing and maintaining healthy individuals, ”says co-author Stefano Natella, head of investment research.
Reading the Credit Suisse report can be a great pleasure for all O Keto followers, as it formulates all the main facts on which this nutrition system is based: you do not get fat from natural fats, saturated fats are safe for health, the cause of the obesity epidemic is in the excessive consumption of carbohydrates and refined vegetable oils, total cholesterol does not say anything about the risk of cardiovascular diseases, etc. At the same time, impartial bank employees worked on it, primarily interested in the most objective data for potential investors.
In addition, the report contains the following forecasts for the period up to 2030:
WORLD TRENDS
- Per capita fat consumption will rise by 23%, protein by 12%, and carbohydrate consumption by 2%. Global demand for fats will grow even more significantly - by 43%, or 1.9% per year, assuming a projected 16% population growth over the next 15 years.
- Consumption of saturated fat will grow from 9.4% of global calorie consumption in 2011 to 12.7% by 2030, monounsaturated fat - from 10.2% to 12.2%.
- Consumption of omega-6 polyunsaturated fats will slightly decrease from 6% to 5.4% of global caloric intake, and omega-3 fats will increase from 0.5% to 0.55%.
- Carbohydrate intake will be reduced from 60% of global calorie intake to 55%. The growing awareness by consumers of the role of carbohydrates in the development of type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease will play a major role in this.
- Red meat consumption will grow by 23% over the next 15 years.
- Egg consumption is set to rise by 4% per year as the public consciousness weakens the link between cholesterol and cardiovascular disease. By 2030, per capita consumption of eggs will rise to 300 per year (just over 5 per week).
BY REGION
- USA
- Meat consumption will grow faster than the world average, especially red meat.
- Egg consumption will rise to 350 per year (almost one egg per day) from the current 235.
- A slight decrease is expected in the consumption of vegetable oils obtained using chemical reagents.
- Consumption of butter will grow faster than global consumption as consumers become more aware of its benefits and negative attitudes towards saturated fat gradually disappear.
- Carbohydrate intake will drop from 51% of total calories to 45%.
- Europe:
- Per capita consumption of red meat will grow by 9%, and poultry - by 19%.
- Fish consumption will grow less - by 12%, because it is already at a relatively high level and the world's fish stocks are limited.
- Milk, cheese and yogurt will grow 11%, or 0.7% per year, but butter will grow 4% per year. Although, 5.5 kg per capita, expected by 2030, is 10% less than the consumption level in 1990.
- Egg consumption will grow by 42%, or 2% per year, and will reach 300 eggs per person per year.
- Consumption of vegetable oils will remain practically unchanged, but at the same time, sales of oils obtained by chemical means will fall by 10%, and natural oils - olive, coconut, and palm - will grow by 30%.
- Carbohydrate intake will drop from 52% of total calories to 46%. A similar trend is expected in other industrialized countries.
These numbers are very interesting and revealing, but it is important to understand that we are talking about average values. They take into account both those who start eating healthier and those who are not interested or misinformed, those who do not have access to quality food, or cannot afford to change their diet. For people who understand the modern scientific approach to healthy eating, the shift in consumption will be much more significant, as well as the positive effects on their health. And you have every chance of being among them - after all, you did not accidentally visit this site? And it is definitely not necessary to wait until 2030. The food revolution is happening right now.
